NBA summer leagues shed more light on the draft

Basketball Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This year's rookie crop got its first taste of the NBA in the recently completed Orlando Summer League and the one in Las Vegas which concludes on Sunday. Though it's not the competition the player will see in the regular season, you can still get a good feel of the skill and talent level in this setting.

In watching these games, it wasn't difficult to come away with some of the steals and blunders of the draft. Here's some of the talent that stood out to me in good and bad ways:

WASHINGTON WIZARDS: John Wall exhibited the talent that earned him the first overall pick, but the point guard will have to cut down on the high turnover totals that plagued him in college along with working on his perimeter game.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS: Evan Turner, by his own admission, struggled pretty badly in Orlando. He was used to controlling the ball at Ohio State and didn't seem comfortable playing off the ball with Jrue Holliday running the offense. Holliday, by the way, looks like he's really ready to make a real impact this season.

NEW JERSEY NETS: Power forward Derrick Favors looked like the project he was labeled before the draft. He needs a lot of work on his post-up game and mid- range jumper. I think DeMarcus Cousins would've been a better choice at this spot. New Jersey's second pick of the first round, Damion James, was very impressive and looks like he's ready to make more of an impact than Favors in his first season.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: Wesley Johnson had problems creating his own shot off the dribble, which is something you definitely don't want to see from the fourth overall pick in the draft. I have a strong feeling the T-wolves will regret this selection.

SACRAMENTO KINGS: Sacramento has to be thrilled with the play of Cousins, its first-round pick. He scored inside and out, rebounded and passed the ball extremely well while showing a really good feel for the game. The former Kentucky center could turn out to be the second-best player in the draft.

DETROIT PISTONS: Greg Monroe did not look comfortable working in the low post. He appears to have a small forward's game in a power forward's body.

UTAH JAZZ: A lot of people questioned Utah's selection of Gordon Hayward with the ninth overall pick, and his play in Orlando showed why. He struggled to get his shot off and his lack of foot speed hurt him on defense. I thought Paul George would have been a much better choice than Hayward.

INDIANA PACERS: Speaking of George, he was clearly one of the standout players in the summer league. His athleticism, size and length will be assets along with his excellent basketball skills. George was selected 10th overall, but looks like he should have gone a bit higher. And speaking of going higher, Indiana's second-round pick (40th overall), Lance Stephenson, looks like he should have gone much earlier in the draft. Character questions scared off a lot of teams, but there doesn't seem to be much doubt about his skill set.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS: The defending champs didn't select until 43rd and 58th picks overall, but it looks like they came away with some NBA talent in small forward Devin Ebanks and power forward Derrick Caracter. Ebanks showed good play on both ends of the floor, while Caracter's play had me wondering how this kid lasted until the third-to-last pick in the draft. He can score with either hand around the basket, has a nice mid-range touch and showed the ability to pass the ball out of the post, which is helpful in the Lakers' triangle offense.

BOSTON CELTICS: Luke Harangody was one of the standouts in summer league play and looks like one of the draft's big steals after being taken 52nd overall. The Notre Dame power forward showed the willingness to bang inside and the ability to step outside and hit 3-pointers.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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